Pig Genetics

China’s decision to reduce import taxes on pork is a clear sign of interest on the part of the Beijing government in facilitating foreign purchases, members of a Brazilian delegation have commented while visiting a trade fair in Guangzhou. They have been attending the China International Foodstuff Exposition to develop partnerships with Chinese pork importers, as Brazil gears up to add China to the list of destinations for its pigmeat. Sources in Brazil have also referred to the whole Asian market as "one of the most promising for Brazilian pork."

Within China, there have been further moves by the National Development and Reform Commission to respond to the pork shortages that followed pig disease outbreaks and severe weather conditions. Some RMB2.8 billion has been allocated from the commission’s central budget to add to the promotional program that has already seen the establishment of several pig production pyramids. Those completed to date represent 20,000 commercial units backed by 375 multiplication sites and 55 basic pig breeding farms. Also on the commission’s agenda is making extra funds available for helping to restore pig numbers in the area in which the May earthquake struck that killed over 3 million pigs and in other regions hit by severe snowstorms in the 2007/08 winter. Provinces lined up to receive funding include Anhui, Gansu, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Shaanxi as well as Sichuan.

Other reports from China say the authorities are to build a frozen meat depot at Zhoukou City in Henan province, with capacity for storing 10 000 tons. Zhoukou is a major meat production center: about 5.2 million pigs were produced in the area during the first half of this year. The city’s annual meat processing capacity is put at 728 200 tons. State frozen pork reserves in China are rotated every 4 months.

Pig production shows the feed price effect

Our annual analysis of global pork production trends considers data pointing to the first downturn for some years

No one should have been surprised that a major international analysis of world meat markets this year has had a complete section devoted to uncertainties. Unprecedented prices for feed grains have created doubts about the continuation of historical patterns and complicated all attempts at forecasting.

From the viewpoint of the pork sector, it had long been clear that 2008 would be a time of adjustments in production to take account of smaller herd inventories. In fact the data now available for 2007 show that some industries around the world were adjusting to the new grain price situation already last year.

Higher grain prices on the world market can be expected to continue for the foreseeable future, suggests the fourth annual Agricultural Outlook paper published jointly by the 30-country Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Looking at the period 2008 to 2017, they predict world meat production will grow on average by 2% per year, although there will be marked differences in growth rates from one region to another. Meat consumption in developing countries (especially those of the Asia-Pacific area) will account for more than 80% of global growth.

But the report available at www.fao.org and www.oecd.org acknowledges those uncertainties in trying to formulate a forecast. It says this year’s Outlook was prepared in an environment characterized by increased instability in financial markets, higher food price inflation, signs of weakening global economic growth and food-security concerns. Five key assumptions were made in reaching its conclusions, relating to biofuel use of grains and oilseeds, petroleum prices, income growth in major developing economies, crop yields and the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to the currencies of all other countries.

Developing countries are expected to dominate production of many agricultural items by 2017. Brazil could hold a 30% share of total world meat exports by the end of the projections. It will figure alongside a small number of major exporters including the USA, Canada, Argentina and Australia as dominant forces in world markets. By contrast, the export share of the European Union is predicted to fall throughout the review period.

Import dependency in meat products should grow in many developing countries as rising demand surpasses the domestic capacity for meat production. Among the developed countries, Russia looks set to remain ahead of Japan as the world’s largest net meat importer by 2017. Worldwide, the changing factors behind supply and demand are forecast to result in commodity prices during the period 2008-2017 being substantially higher than in the last 10 years. Beef and pork prices are forecast some 20% higher, with the price of wheat and maize likely higher by 40-60%.

Coming back to the present and recent past, however, an assessment by FAO has proposed that global pigmeat production in 2008 will increase by almost 2% after a 3% decline in 2007 which was largely the result of culling of pigs in China following that country’s outbreak of PRRS. This year, output in China is foreseen to expand more than 1%.

In South America, an increase in pigmeat production is anticipated in virtually all producing countries for the fourth consecutive year. Argentina, Brazil and Chile, which have ample feed supplies, are the main contributors to the 4% output expansion projected for the region. In Russia, production is set to grow by more than 6% in 2008 as the pig population increases. US pork output could also be higher. But in Canada and the European Union, where output last year was at cyclical highs, production is expected to decline in 2008. Vietnam’s production is also affected by PRSS and culling of infected animals will reduce the national growth in production for 2008.

See the full version of this article: Pig Production